Election '09: Three Races That Mean More Than A Little

Granted, it's an off election year. No federal elections to be had. There's no election fervor or television coverege over a year long. But you should still vote. Exercising democracy's greatest boon is the most patriotic thing you can do, and you get to do it once a year. As you vote, in the spirit of November, be thankful that you have the opportunity to cast a vote, and to do so without risk to your person.

Public service announcement aside, this year's election does have 3 critical races that will say a lot about the political climate of the country.

We'll start in in my home state of Virginia, where, in 2008, President Obama won by more than 200,000 votes. This is a state that pundits everywhere claimed was trending to be a new Democrat stronghold. While the state did go blue in 2008, the governor's race in 2009 will serve as a litmus test for states "on the fence." The Republican, Bob McDonnell, and the Democrat, Creigh Deeds, have faced each other before. In 2006, the two squared off for Virginia Attorney General, which McDonnell won by a measly 200 votes. Now they vy for the top job in the state that went blue in a big way last year (6 of the 11 U.S. Representatives are now Democrats, as well as both Senators).

Despite backing from the President, including campaign appearances this week, Deeds has fallen far behind McDonnell. Consecutive polls show him behind by double digits. A victory for McDonnell seems very likely at this point, but why? Here's a list of the reasons I see for the way the numbers are polling out:

1. Republicans are energized. The GOP has a candidate that appeals to both ends of its spectrum, as well as a majority of Virginia independents. Many upset with Obama policies are powering the grass roots movement.
2. Democrats aren't. With Obama in office, the energy of the base just isn't there. Deeds is in a tough spot with this lack of support, the more he appears likely to lose, the less people will actually turn out to vote for him.
3. Campaigning. When the Post broke the story on McDonnell's less than flattering master's thesis, Deeds jumped all over it. For a while it worked, and he pulled with 4 or 5 percentage points. Instead of pressing McDonnell on other issues however, Deeds stuck to his gun and the result is a campaign that Virginians view as negative. Combine that with Deeds' waffling on camera and McDonnell's collected cool in answering (or not) tough questions, and you can see why Deeds is behind.

The Politix train now moves north, to the tumultuous state of New Jersey. Rife with economic troubles and government corruption, New Jersey is playing host to an unusually close governor's race. In one of the bluest states in the union, Republican challenger Chris Christie held a sizable lead in the polls over troubled incumbent Jon Corzine, a Democrat. Many felt that a Republican challenging for New Jersey is a significant indicator of the nation's political mood, and it is. However, Christie's lead is gone. Recent polls show the two in a dead heat. How has this happened in a race where the incumbant has never once polled higher than 45%?

1. Beat 'em when you're down. In politics, when you're losing, it is often effective to get nasty. That's exactly what Corzine has done, hitting Christie hard on ties to Bush, interest on a loan to a friend, even his weight (Christie is a big guy). It's been working, eliminating Christie's double-digit lead. Christie entered the race as the "rout out corruption" figure, but Corzine has tarnished him enough that the has lost that edge. Christie, to his fault, hasn't pushed Corzine on the issues.

2. Third party spoiler. Chris Daggett, an independent, is making his case for the governorship. He has been allowed to debate the other two, and according to most anaylists, has outperformed them. Because of New Jersey's stauch liberalism, most of Daggett's support is bleeding off of Christie. Many Democrats unhappy with Corzine would rather vote for Daggett than the Republican alternative.

While Daggett is a long shot to win on election day, I'm betting on the odds that he will contribute to Corzine's re-election. It's a shame that most independent candidates serve as nothing more than spoilers for the Dems or GOP on the ticket (a la Perot and Nader). Independents can often be the best option for an electorate, but are doomed to obscurity by our two-party system and partisan thinking of the party-registered.

One independent who has been successful is Michael Bloomberg, mayor of New York City. He is seeking his third term, which required new legislation from New Yorkers to allow him to run again, and he will likely win. The more impactful race in this election, however, is further upstate.

In New York 23, a district that has never elected a Democrat for Representative, has a very close three-way special election that is garnering plenty of attention. Democrat Bill Owens, Republican Dede Scozzafava, and Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman are tussling for the open seat. The imporatnce of this race dwells on the right side of the camp. Scozzafava is a moderate Republican, something the party would like to see more of if intends to do better nationally. However, many conservatives, unhappy with her liberal leanings, have stood behind Doug Hoffman, a walking definition of a values politician. Republicans on the national stage have lined up to endorse him (the names are too obvious to bother to mention).

One glaring ommission is Newt Gingrich, who supports Scozzafava, stating, "You can win with a center-right majority in this country like we did with Reagan and again with the Contract with America. You can't win with an extreme right or an extreme left in this country." I find the comment odd given Gingrich's recent past of posturing in the media, prepping for a possible 2012 run, but he's spot on. In a year of what I would consider unhealthy levels of ultra-conservative activism, I would anticipate a Hoffman win spelling a hard right turn for national Republicans. At the going rate, conservatives will succeed in pushing out moderates from the GOP "big tent." The result will be a smaller Republican Party and more national defeats.